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Copenhagen Institute for Future Studies puts their money on The carbon bicycles as future transport
Once Upon a time, the bicycle was considered a means of transportation for children and the poor-people who for some reason didn't have the option of driving a car. That's not how it is any more.
What will the future means of transportation be; a school kid asked me once. After a bit of thought, I answered, ‘the bicycle’.
This may seem an odd choice, since there isn’t much futuristic about the bicycle. But then again. The bicycle is splendidly suited for a future world characterised by climate change, peak oil, obesity epidemics, and a rising population pressure, particularly in cities. It is a simple means of transportation that is easy to build and to repair, and it doesn’t pollute or take up much space in dense city environments. In addition, the bicycle is independent of fossil and nuclear energy sources, and it provides exercise to a population that moves too little and eats too much. Finally, it is eminent for transporting small amounts of goods over short distances. You may object, however, that the bicycle basically hasn’t evolved in 100 years. True enough! Already in the 1890s the bicycle got the shape we know today – with pedals, chain drive, pneumatic rubber tires, freewheeling, and brakes. Handbrakes and dérailleur gears were also invented in this decade. Hence, a bicyclist from the end of the 19th century would be able to mount a modern bicycle and ride it right away.
Does this mean that the bicycle already more than a hundred years ago achieved its ideal shape? Or is the reason why it hasn’t changed rather that the bicycle is so unimportant that nobody bothers to spend energy on it?
We can quickly dismiss the latter possibility. There are more than a billion bicycles worldwide, making for a sizeable commercial market. Until around 1970, the numbers of bicycles and cars produced globally were about equal, but in the 1970s and 1980s, the production of bicycles exploded, and today, in 2013, the production of bicycles is about two and a half times as great as the production of cars. The bicycle is particularly popular in China, where the producer Flying Pigeon alone churns out about 800,000 bicycles every year. Since the 1950s, Flying Pigeon has produced about 500 million bicycles; making their bike the most popular and widespread serially produced means of transportation ever.
Enormous sums are also spent improving the bicycle for e.g. bicycle racing, and even though the basic design hasn’t changed for a very long time, it has been significantly improved through the use of stronger and lighter materials like aluminium, carbon fibre and titanium steel. The basic design is improved through computer-assisted design and analysis based on fluid dynamic principles, and in the future we will get ultralight bicycles made from carbon nanotubes, without oily chains or other things that may stain clothing. Most likely, they will also be collapsible to small bags we can carry around everywhere, making it easy to combine a bicycle with other means of transportation, and built-in electronics can show us the fastest and safest route and warn of possible rain showers or strong headwinds. For these reasons, I still think that the bicycle will be the most common means of transportation in 2100, simply because it is the most rational choice.
The argument ties closely to a number of large-scale trends in our society, all of which support the idea of the bicycle as the means of transportation for the future. These trends, that more than anything characterise the future development of the world, are called megatrends by futurists. The bicycle fits so well with the challenges that lie in several important megatrends that one should think it was designed for them. Where the car was the means of transportation for the 20th century, the bicycle could very well turn out to be that of the 21st century. Read below to find out why.
These megatrends make the bicycle a winner
Population growth and urbanisation are two of the most important demographic megatrends that promote the bicycle as the obvious choice of transportation in the future.
According to the UN’s median prognosis, world population will over the next decades grow from a bit over seven billion today to eight billion by 2025 and nine billion by 2040. At the same time, a growing share of the population is moving to the big cities, and it has been estimated that three fifths of the world’s population by 2030 will live in cities, compared to slightly more than half today. Even a minor Western capital like Copenhagen is growing by 1,000 people every month. The number of megacities – cities with more than 10 million inhabitants – will grow dramatically throughout the 20th century.
This dramatic urbanisation increases the need for compact transportation. Most major cities worldwide are planning or implementing massive expansions of public transportation – and of communal bicycle schemes and other efforts to make more people go by bike. Apart from our feet, the bicycle is the most compact means of transportation we have. 4-5 bicycles can ride neck by neck in a single car lane, and they can ride equally close behind each other. At the same time, you can get around in city environments faster on a bike than by public transportation, among other things because you can drive directly from door to door without waiting for or changing transports. During rush hour, bicycles often move faster than even private cars are able to. Parking-wise, bicycles also take up much less space than cars; it is only because cities focus more on providing parking spaces for cars than for bicycles that bikes often are parked on sidewalks or leaning up store windows, to the exasperation of store owners.
Individualisation is another important megatrend. It is about how we focus more on the individual and individual needs as opposed to the community and community needs. For individuals public transportation, where you need to adapt to an average person’s transportation needs, isn’t ideal. Here, the bicycle is otherwise flexible and better suited for individual transportation needs, particularly at times and routes when and where not a lot of other people need transportation. There is also plenty of opportunity for individualising your own bike, and a fancy bike has long since become a status symbol in line with a fancy car – just without the negative connotations associated with a big petrol guzzler. In an age when status increasingly is connected with good health and environmental consciousness, the bicycle fits like a hand in a glove.
This focus on health is a megatrend in strong growth. There is a lot of focus on health, both at the individual level, because personal health gives status and sexual attractiveness, and at the societal level, because lifestyle disorders, associated with obesity and bad health habits, are very costly to the society. However, in a busy workday, when work, family and leisure-time activities must come together, many find it difficult to cultivate fitness or exercise as a separate activity, and here the bicycle is almost unique in combining a practical activity – rapid and direct transportation – with exercise. In addition, bicycles are the cause of far fewer serious accidents than cars are, and they don’t emit unhealthy fumes and particles, so here, too, we have a health gain. With this, we are touching upon the last megatrend that promotes the bicycle as the most obvious means of transportation for the future: environment and climate change. A bicycle is far more environmentally sound than a car, also when it comes to the environmental impact of construction, maintenance and scrapping….
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